Introduction
The purpose of today’s blog is to reflect back on my first Tree Law TV Live event in July. Sat in my office on a boiling hot morning, the start of the UK’s heatwave, and I was talking about what a hot dry summer meant for the risk of properties suffering tree root subsidence.
Linkedin Live
It is this time of year in the insurance industry the our minds always turn to the question of whether this is going to be a big tree root subsidence year.
Presuming you haven’t come across tree root subsidence before, I’ll cover off a couple of the basics if I may.
So what factors are needed for a property to be at risk of damage caused by tree root subsidence?
Well you need to have a property built on a shrinkable clay soil with a tree in close proximity whose roots might grow underneath the foundations of that property.
This is because it’s the drying out of the clay soil underneath the foundations of the property which can cause the issue.
In the household insurance industry and the local authority tree officer world, there will be a close watch on summer weather. If a hot and dry summer is predicted then the question is asked about whether this is going to be a subsidence summer.
The last surge event for subsidence claims was in summer 2018. A surge event is when there is a percentage upturn in the number of insurance claims made when compared with a normal ‘control’ year.
So we are just into July 2022, are we gonna see that happen this year?
The first thing I would say is that it’s not looking likely that it’s going to happen as early as it did in 2018. I think we’re coming into the summer off the back of a wetter winter and if we’re thinking that tree root subsidence is all about the moisture content of a shrinkable clay soil, then obviously a summer, no matter how glorious it needs to be following a drier winter for damage to be starting as early as July.
As to whether it’s going to be a surge year this year, I wouldn’t want to put any money on this.
In the insurance world the Met Office track the soil moisture content of certain clay soils across the UK. That’s a piece of data called the MORECS data, and we can look at that and chart that across a graph through the weeks of the year to assess whether there’s likely to be a surge event in, in terms of what that needs.
At the moment I’m the chair of the Subsidence Forum and we’ve discussed the issue of creating an industry accepted definition of a subsidence surge event. The problem that makes this really difficult is because if you’re looking at it from an insurance perspective. Insurance is all about the contract of insurance between the customer and the insurance company so that will have some variations from insurer to insurer across the industry. That variation means an agreed definition is difficult to land on.
If the hot dry weather continues then we are going to get to a surge year again in summer 2022. And I think that’s where we’re getting to now 2022, what’s that, four years since the last surge in 2018?
No two surge years are the same. 2022 is a different world to the last surges of 2003 and 2018. The one thing that I think is the biggest difference here is the environment in which we’re all operating in.
So what factors are needed for a property to be at risk of damage caused by tree root subsidence?
Well you need to have a property built on a shrinkable clay soil with a tree in close proximity whose roots might grow underneath the foundations of that property.
This is because it’s the drying out of the clay soil underneath the foundations of the property which can cause the issue.
In the household insurance industry and the local authority tree officer world, there will be a close watch on summer weather. If a hot and dry summer is predicted then the question is asked about whether this is going to be a subsidence summer.
The last surge event for subsidence claims was in summer 2018. A surge event is when there is a percentage upturn in the number of insurance claims made when compared with a normal ‘control’ year.
So we are just into July 2022, are we gonna see that happen this year?
The first thing I would say is that it’s not looking likely that it’s going to happen as early as it did in 2018. I think we’re coming into the summer off the back of a wetter winter and if we’re thinking that tree root subsidence is all about the moisture content of a shrinkable clay soil, then obviously a summer, no matter how glorious it needs to be following a drier winter for damage to be starting as early as July.
As to whether it’s going to be a surge year this year, I wouldn’t want to put any money on this.
In the insurance world the Met Office track the soil moisture content of certain clay soils across the UK. That’s a piece of data called the MORECS data, and we can look at that and chart that across a graph through the weeks of the year to assess whether there’s likely to be a surge event in, in terms of what that needs.
At the moment I’m the chair of the Subsidence Forum and we’ve discussed the issue of creating an industry accepted definition of a subsidence surge event. The problem that makes this really difficult is because if you’re looking at it from an insurance perspective. Insurance is all about the contract of insurance between the customer and the insurance company so that will have some variations from insurer to insurer across the industry. That variation means an agreed definition is difficult to land on.
If the hot dry weather continues then we are going to get to a surge year again in summer 2022. And I think that’s where we’re getting to now 2022, what’s that, four years since the last surge in 2018?
No two surge years are the same. 2022 is a different world to the last surges of 2003 and 2018. The one thing that I think is the biggest difference here is the environment in which we’re all operating in.
Climate Change & Subsidence
I think there can’t be many people out there that would disagree that one of the biggest issues facing all of us at the moment is climate change. So where we’re talking about tree root subsidence, that is an insurance ‘peril’ which is entirely related to the weather.
If you look at the picture above where it shows all the factors that you need in place in order for there to be a risk of tree root subsidence, up in the top left corner is the sunshine.
And if we’re looking at sunny days, if we’re looking at dry winters leading into hot dry summers and we’ve got the southeast of England experiencing extreme dry weather, then that really is something that is only set to change more and more as climate change progresses.
So we’re in 2022 now. We’re already experiencing the implications of climate change. I’m sure I saw on a piece of news on social media that there is a chance of 1 area in the southeast of England actually having a temperature hitting 40 degrees this summer and it’s projected that 40 degree days are going to get more and more with the coming years.
And that’s where you get this intrinsic link between climate risk and tree root subsidence.
Also climate change is going to mean that we’re going to start seeing those subsidence claims moving, moving more north in the UK. Whereas we haven’t seen before because temperatures in more mid-north of the UK have not been hot enough, as those temperatures start to rise then that is a risk to areas even with only moderately shrinkable soil.
If you look at the picture above where it shows all the factors that you need in place in order for there to be a risk of tree root subsidence, up in the top left corner is the sunshine.
And if we’re looking at sunny days, if we’re looking at dry winters leading into hot dry summers and we’ve got the southeast of England experiencing extreme dry weather, then that really is something that is only set to change more and more as climate change progresses.
So we’re in 2022 now. We’re already experiencing the implications of climate change. I’m sure I saw on a piece of news on social media that there is a chance of 1 area in the southeast of England actually having a temperature hitting 40 degrees this summer and it’s projected that 40 degree days are going to get more and more with the coming years.
And that’s where you get this intrinsic link between climate risk and tree root subsidence.
Also climate change is going to mean that we’re going to start seeing those subsidence claims moving, moving more north in the UK. Whereas we haven’t seen before because temperatures in more mid-north of the UK have not been hot enough, as those temperatures start to rise then that is a risk to areas even with only moderately shrinkable soil.
Worried about subsidence if you’re buying a house?
Who’s going to worry about this?
Well, if a homeowner is trying to sell our house or wants to buy a house in a subsidence hotspot area what are they going to be thinking coming into summer 2022?
This is something that clients are talking to be about more and more.
So people who live and work in and around London and who want to buy a property or want to buy a property in certain areas? There is data out there about risk profiles in certain areas of London and the rest of the UK. For subsidence, it’s easy to say, well, just buy it in a different area. But that’s not a straightforward answer. You’ve got people wanting to live in areas for different reasons such as work home and things like school catchment areas and so.
As a homeowner, if you’re buying a house you may be looking at the risk profile of subsidence damage. Part of the process of buying a house is getting out insurance cover. Then you contact the insurance company. They’re going to tap in the post code of your house into their database and think, well, is this a risk they want to insure?
They don’t have to say yes, this is all part of a contract of insurance, that these are negotiable terms if you’re entering into a new contract of insurance with the insurer.
So if you can’t go into the market and get competitive insurance cover then what impact is that going to have when you try and get a mortgage? Any mortgage company, to secure their loan over that property, is going to want it to be backed up with an insurance policy. So that is a key and tricky issue for all homeowners.
If you’re buying a house and have concerns about tree root subsidence risk then ensuring you get a prepurchase survey report is key. That report will look for signs of subsidence and advise of likely risk and/or things that could be done to reduce that risk.
Well, if a homeowner is trying to sell our house or wants to buy a house in a subsidence hotspot area what are they going to be thinking coming into summer 2022?
This is something that clients are talking to be about more and more.
So people who live and work in and around London and who want to buy a property or want to buy a property in certain areas? There is data out there about risk profiles in certain areas of London and the rest of the UK. For subsidence, it’s easy to say, well, just buy it in a different area. But that’s not a straightforward answer. You’ve got people wanting to live in areas for different reasons such as work home and things like school catchment areas and so.
As a homeowner, if you’re buying a house you may be looking at the risk profile of subsidence damage. Part of the process of buying a house is getting out insurance cover. Then you contact the insurance company. They’re going to tap in the post code of your house into their database and think, well, is this a risk they want to insure?
They don’t have to say yes, this is all part of a contract of insurance, that these are negotiable terms if you’re entering into a new contract of insurance with the insurer.
So if you can’t go into the market and get competitive insurance cover then what impact is that going to have when you try and get a mortgage? Any mortgage company, to secure their loan over that property, is going to want it to be backed up with an insurance policy. So that is a key and tricky issue for all homeowners.
If you’re buying a house and have concerns about tree root subsidence risk then ensuring you get a prepurchase survey report is key. That report will look for signs of subsidence and advise of likely risk and/or things that could be done to reduce that risk.
What’s the risk for tree owners?
So how is the risk of a surge period in 2022 going to affect tree owners?
This will start to put local authority tree owners under significant pressure. As I said before, no 2 surge summers are the same, each summer is different.
For local authorities, they are in a period of austerity like we haven’t seen before with limited staff and budgets to manage trees. Also across England there is new legislation and guidance which they need to adapt to. We’ve got the Environment Act and the England Trees Action Plan, both of which apply to the management of trees across England.
We also have the Queen’s Green Canopy initiative, so everything is focused on planting more and more trees to increase canopy cover but then with limited budgets to manage those trees over future summers.
Whilst tree root subsidence risk is significant and important for property owners, we need to find a way for properties and trees to be able to coexist in urban areas. If temperatures are at risk of reaching 40 degrees in London this summer then canopy cover is critical for the longevity of parts of London. Canopy of a tree can reduce temperatures by up to 10 degrees centigrade so having a tree or not could make a real difference to whether a property can be lived in comfortably into the future.
So if we have got local authority tree owners with less money, perhaps less members of staff in their team and needing to manage not only their current tree stock, but also hitting targets to plant more trees and using their same limited budget. That limited budget also having to cover things like managing other aspects of tree ownership, such as managing things like ash dieback the perhaps then this is just going to put more and more pressure on those local authorities.
Groups such as the London Tree Officers Association are working to produce a new draft of their tree root subsidence risk limitation strategy, which is all about trying to streamline evidence. This is so that when an approach is made to a local authority for tree works or tree removal due to subsidence, then an agreed standard of evidence can be provided in support of that request.
This will start to put local authority tree owners under significant pressure. As I said before, no 2 surge summers are the same, each summer is different.
For local authorities, they are in a period of austerity like we haven’t seen before with limited staff and budgets to manage trees. Also across England there is new legislation and guidance which they need to adapt to. We’ve got the Environment Act and the England Trees Action Plan, both of which apply to the management of trees across England.
We also have the Queen’s Green Canopy initiative, so everything is focused on planting more and more trees to increase canopy cover but then with limited budgets to manage those trees over future summers.
Whilst tree root subsidence risk is significant and important for property owners, we need to find a way for properties and trees to be able to coexist in urban areas. If temperatures are at risk of reaching 40 degrees in London this summer then canopy cover is critical for the longevity of parts of London. Canopy of a tree can reduce temperatures by up to 10 degrees centigrade so having a tree or not could make a real difference to whether a property can be lived in comfortably into the future.
So if we have got local authority tree owners with less money, perhaps less members of staff in their team and needing to manage not only their current tree stock, but also hitting targets to plant more trees and using their same limited budget. That limited budget also having to cover things like managing other aspects of tree ownership, such as managing things like ash dieback the perhaps then this is just going to put more and more pressure on those local authorities.
Groups such as the London Tree Officers Association are working to produce a new draft of their tree root subsidence risk limitation strategy, which is all about trying to streamline evidence. This is so that when an approach is made to a local authority for tree works or tree removal due to subsidence, then an agreed standard of evidence can be provided in support of that request.
Ecosystem services
Trees are far more than just an object which poses a risk, they have significant benefits which we must acknowledge and try to preserve.
Trees provide ecosystem services. They provide habitats for animals, shade, attenuate the risk of flooding, help remove pollution from the atmosphere and obviously remove and store carbon from the atmosphere.
Those benefits which perhaps feel less tangible include things such as the improvement of mental health, I think that was something we hadn’t thought too much about before COVID.
And then when we were all locked and not able to do anything other than enjoy our green spaces, it really made us realise what the value of those spaces is.
Trees provide ecosystem services. They provide habitats for animals, shade, attenuate the risk of flooding, help remove pollution from the atmosphere and obviously remove and store carbon from the atmosphere.
Those benefits which perhaps feel less tangible include things such as the improvement of mental health, I think that was something we hadn’t thought too much about before COVID.
And then when we were all locked and not able to do anything other than enjoy our green spaces, it really made us realise what the value of those spaces is.
How a surge might affect insurers
Looking ahead to later in this summer, will insurers be reporting to the press that they are seeing a high number of claims coming in due to the hot weather? I wonder if the economic conditions are going to keep a lid on numbers with insureds feeling too worried about the high subsidence excess to make a claim?
How are insurers going to face changing risk as our climate continues to change. Risk is historically assessed looking backwards at past patterns. However, as I’ve said, 2022 is unlike any other year and climate will change into the future meaning that risk needs to be assessed looking forward not back.
So from the actuaries assessing the risk which then feeds into the underwriters who underwrite the risk and the polices which are then offered.
Looking at the claims themselves, how the insurer goes ahead and carries out the repair works will also start to change. We are in a climate change emergency and the insurers are going to start seeing their own customers who are going to be putting them under pressure to make sure that sustainable solutions are put in place in their homes when dealing with their claim. Perhaps a focus on sustainable solutions means that removal of trees to solve tree root subsidence will not be so widely tolerated by customers going through a subsidence claim as they start to appreciate the risk of removing a tree on the wider environment rather than its continued presence risking crack damage to their house.
What is clear is that climate change is causing the world of tree root subsidence to have to change significantly. If summer 2022 does end up being a surge year for claims it will put subsidence back into the spotlight and will perhaps start to drive a faster pace of change.
How are insurers going to face changing risk as our climate continues to change. Risk is historically assessed looking backwards at past patterns. However, as I’ve said, 2022 is unlike any other year and climate will change into the future meaning that risk needs to be assessed looking forward not back.
So from the actuaries assessing the risk which then feeds into the underwriters who underwrite the risk and the polices which are then offered.
Looking at the claims themselves, how the insurer goes ahead and carries out the repair works will also start to change. We are in a climate change emergency and the insurers are going to start seeing their own customers who are going to be putting them under pressure to make sure that sustainable solutions are put in place in their homes when dealing with their claim. Perhaps a focus on sustainable solutions means that removal of trees to solve tree root subsidence will not be so widely tolerated by customers going through a subsidence claim as they start to appreciate the risk of removing a tree on the wider environment rather than its continued presence risking crack damage to their house.
What is clear is that climate change is causing the world of tree root subsidence to have to change significantly. If summer 2022 does end up being a surge year for claims it will put subsidence back into the spotlight and will perhaps start to drive a faster pace of change.
